If you thought a week was a long time in politics...
Monday, November 23, 2009 by Ed Mead
...you should try the property market. With the Press cottoning on to the fact that the market is recovering and moving, and despite some doubt as to the rally's longevity, it really does seem as if potential sellers have suddenly flipped from not selling because they think the market’s on the way down to believing that we’re at the beginning of a bull run and that if they wait they’ll get more. An amazing and light switch fast change. It’s barely a month until Christmas and we’re still busy though, and even I am being persuaded that next year might carry on as this one appears to be finishing. My gut still thinks the risks for next year are large and even at this late stage of the year I’d go to the market rather than wait for the New Year like everyone else.
Whatever the reason supply IS still short and with the BoE torn between keeping interest rates low to aid the flow of money and raising them to keep inflation at bay, it appears that the “keep them low” brigade is winning and likely to stay in the ascendancy for some time. They obviously believe the Economy has the capacity to take a bit of inflation.
Even if inflation does come the received wisdom on the subject is that you should be long on debt, preferably against a large asset. So it’s difficult to see next year as being anything other than a win/win for those with a desire to buy property in London.